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  • Are we going a bit too far?n

    Give me liberty of give me death! Remember that? Sure was a good one. Lots of folk died over that one. No not from a virus but good things like guns and bombs; you know fun stuff.

    Somehow I look at empty roads which makes my commute really fast and wonder what the hell is going on. We were told we can't work. If we did we'd all die of the virus.
    My dry cleaner has some of my clothes. He's closed because he was told he had to close. Funny in all the years I used him there was never a problem with social distancing because how many people go into a dry cleaner at the same time? Well I''ll wait for the clothes I guess. Now my liquor store on the other hand is quite busy. Well I guess my state doesn't mind if you're drunk but wear dirty clothes. Hey if you're drunk you don't really know do you?

    I saw the governor of Michigan the other day on the tube. Not a bad looking lady but dumb as a rock. She put in some real strict orders and yes they were orders. You can't go to a store and buy all kinds of stuff. Seeds made the list. Now in big stores like Home Depot that remain open because they have what are called essentials like parts for toilets and electrical crap they have roped off the areas for plants, outdoor grills etc; nope you can't buy them. I guess seed grow virus.
    She also prevented not only any type of gatherings but travel. You see if you're a Michigan resident and you own a summer home there now that she put in the new rules you cannot travel to your summer home and wait out the virus. That is against the law. Of course if you live in New York and want to travel to your summer home in Michigan that's okay. WTF?

    A buddy of mine works in Detroit and lives there. 3 weeks ago he sent his wife and 3 kids to go chill at their summer place in Michigan by the lake because numbers were starting to get bad in Detroit. With the new rules his job is no longer essential. Now with the new rules by this idiot it is against the law for him to drive within his own state to be with his family. Well you know what I would say to those rules. By the way has anyone seen the ACLU lately? I hear they love shit like this.

    The dopey Michigan ruler said he following when pressed;'Some people grieve for their loss of freedom.I grieve for those who lost loved ones".

    Hold the phone; didn't millions of Americans lose loved one to win preserve and protect our freedoms? Their sacrifice and lives no longer matter? Those freedoms can just be taken away with no fight? And over what? A virus? You know we'll have another nasty bug in 2 or 3 years. Are we gonna do this again?

    Okay for all you scary Mary's out there get this. We may lose 50,000 people to this thing. We'll lose 80,000 to the flu and we actually have a vaccine for that. This bug will have a 99.5% cure rate or better. We have millions of people walking around that have had it and never knew it. If being very conservative and we say 5 million had it and never knew it and we take the current death rate it turns out that the mortality rate is about 0.5%. The common flu is about 0.4%. And that's being conservative.

    Look at what is being given up without asking. Oneida County in upstate NY has 1 covid death and 11 death to drug overdoses and everything is closed. The one death makes headlines; the others don't.

    Maybe we should ll take a look at the hysteria being created by a media with nothing to do. Swine flu. H1N1, 2010; 60 million Americans infected,350,000 hospitalized and 18,000 deaths. When you're talking about a country with 360 million people this new bug is not a whole lot nastier that the last one.

    Now let's not even think that they're playing around with stats. A good friends brother died of lung cancer 3 weeks ago. The official cause of death was covid19. It seems hospital reimbursement is faster and more plentiful when death comes from covid then cancer. And I do know this as fact.

    HCQ; I know bad drug. Not effective. Funny but every cop in NYC that tests positive for covid are put right on that drug and 2 weeks later back to work. Not gonna hear that in the media are you? Nope! So how do I know? Well one of my kids just may happen to be a cop.

    Boys and girls; hey do we have any girls here or do I have to dress up in drag again? I am not into conspiracy theories and that crap but we all should be paying close attention to what is going on here. We the public better start asking more questions, demand far more answers and keep demanding them. It is a government of the people and we the people dictate not the other way around. Don't be fooled by "the experts" because anyone can be called an expert. Use your own brain or lose what millions of our people died for.
    The world's still a toy if you just stay a boy!

  • #2
    My question is this,quarantining is for sick people right?
    Usually if a family members sick with an illness chances are you’ll get it
    So we have potential sick people with who are healthy which are placed in an unhealthy situation because because of what some expert says or experts
    Maybe I’m totally wrong but anyway that’s my opinion
    I’m no expert
    Imagination expands the mind

    Comment


    • #3
      Long live the republic!
      You never slow down, you never grow old!

      Comment


      • #4
        Just curious. If the Covid19 pandemic is not as serious as the media suggests, why are NYC morgues and funeral homes backlogged and leasing refrigerated trucks to store the bodies. Or, are we being plunked on this aspect as well?
        Valued Member of 12+ years at the PEGym
        12/'09 (start) NBP EL - 4.5, EG - 4.4
        12/11 NBPEL - 5.1, MSEG - 5
        01/13 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.1
        01/14 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.25
        01/16 NBPEL - 5.4, MSEG - 5.5
        Fat Pad = 1+/-

        Real cars have two seats. Everything else is a bus.

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        • #5
          It's not that it isn't a serious threat - it's a novel virus and people with underlying conditions are especially suseptible to it - but the growing amount of data continues to suggest that it's not as terrifying as has been portrayed. Yes, NY appears to have seen about double the typical number of deaths for a month. That's put a strain on the resources to deal with the dead. NY is a very dense city and I don't think it would surprise anyone that a virus can spread there more readily than many other locations. But the CFR so far is at .09% and I would expect that number to decrease as more cases are reported. So, ya, a lot more people died in NY - highly skewed by old age and comorbidity - but not as many as *should have* if the virus was the scourge we've been warned about.

          Comment


          • #6
            Idk. But I haven’t had what’s left of my hair cut in two months. I’ve been playing with the fold over. And if another month goes by, I’ll try the Donald.
            A prayer, is kinda the same as a "Like". If there are enough likes, God will take notice. So "Like" away please. My daughter needs your prayers. Thank You.

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            • #7
              Conspiracy theory out of the US how novel .

              Typical flu deaths in a year in the US is not 80000.

              Have not seen anything convincing to suggest cfr is under 1%, seen lots of convincing stuff to suggest it is above 1%.

              Comment


              • #8
                Confirmation bias

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                • #9
                  CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT



                  CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

                  www.statnews.com › 2018/09/26 › cdc-us-flu-deaths-winte



                  Now that funny mortality calculation; what is the death rate. Well they figure it out by taking the number of REPORTED cases and and the number of deaths from it, do a bit of math and you get the rate. The problem is that number is not accurate on the high side. Millions of people get the flu in this country each year and never report it. I had it last year, I knew what it was, stayed home and felt like crap for a week and then back to work. I didn't call my doctor to tell him because there was nothing he could do except to tell me to do the things I already knew how to do.
                  Now covid; easily 10 million people here have had it and never knew it. That's conservative. Hey why report something you never knew you had? That's why testing is important; they want to know what really is the rate in the general population. Now if we say 10 million have had it with 30,000 deaths it brings the mortality rate to 0.3

                  Now lets look at the figures we see on the tube each day. 650,000 infected, 30,000 deaths; they show that all day. I guess since we don't have baseball we have to keep score on something. Looks bad huh; so many infected and so many deaths and yup it's not nice. Now we have tested 3.5 million in this country. Go do the math. Using that low figure it makes the mortality rate 0.8%
                  When all is said and done although the loss of any life is sad it is not what it was made out to be.
                  The world's still a toy if you just stay a boy!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    6 feet apart!
                    You never slow down, you never grow old!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      “Easily, 10 million people have had it.” What is the source of this stat?

                      According to Lindsay Graham today, Covid19 is 3 times more deadly than the flu. I assume he has access to fairly reliable information. Using tested results in calculating mortality rates for Covid19 is unfair as compared to the flu because most people with the flu are not tested because there is no compelling reason to do so.

                      With regard to Graham, he does not feel we have overreacted with the mitigation restraints enacted so far. He, however, is in favor of starting people back to work, but only after an effective testing procedure is put in place. Only those who have tested negative should be allowed to return.
                      Valued Member of 12+ years at the PEGym
                      12/'09 (start) NBP EL - 4.5, EG - 4.4
                      12/11 NBPEL - 5.1, MSEG - 5
                      01/13 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.1
                      01/14 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.25
                      01/16 NBPEL - 5.4, MSEG - 5.5
                      Fat Pad = 1+/-

                      Real cars have two seats. Everything else is a bus.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The ten million? That's just a guess and not a bad one at that. 3.5 million tested and the infection rate with those numbers is a bit under 17% of the population. Remember the infection rate for H1N1 back in 2010? Just a bit under 17%. Interesting huh?
                        Millions of Americans have already had this bug and never knew it. Same with H1N1. There is no way to accurately get stats on this but one old rule of thumb for virology guys is to get a decent assumption of the number of people who you think had a particular virus is to get the number you actually know and multiply by 3.
                        The world's still a toy if you just stay a boy!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by CUSP82 View Post
                          CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT



                          CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

                          www.statnews.com › 2018/09/26 › cdc-us-flu-deaths-winte



                          Now that funny mortality calculation; what is the death rate. Well they figure it out by taking the number of REPORTED cases and and the number of deaths from it, do a bit of math and you get the rate. The problem is that number is not accurate on the high side. Millions of people get the flu in this country each year and never report it. I had it last year, I knew what it was, stayed home and felt like crap for a week and then back to work. I didn't call my doctor to tell him because there was nothing he could do except to tell me to do the things I already knew how to do.
                          Now covid; easily 10 million people here have had it and never knew it. That's conservative. Hey why report something you never knew you had? That's why testing is important; they want to know what really is the rate in the general population. Now if we say 10 million have had it with 30,000 deaths it brings the mortality rate to 0.3

                          Now lets look at the figures we see on the tube each day. 650,000 infected, 30,000 deaths; they show that all day. I guess since we don't have baseball we have to keep score on something. Looks bad huh; so many infected and so many deaths and yup it's not nice. Now we have tested 3.5 million in this country. Go do the math. Using that low figure it makes the mortality rate 0.8%
                          When all is said and done although the loss of any life is sad it is not what it was made out to be.
                          I wish I could like this post 100 times, but it'll only let me do it once. How are people claiming over 1% when the mortality (cases vs deaths) are fluctuating around .04, .06, .08, etc?

                          Only one correction, you are missing a zero in your decimal math. 10m cases / 30,000 deaths = .003 not .3. Likewise 650,000 infected / 30,000 deaths = point zero four. That is .04. A very very low mortality rate, especially considering the millions who are asymptomatic and never tested, probably that many untested cases will add another zero, meaning .004, .006, .008 or whatever it is depending on the day's fluctuations. Its nowhere NEAR 1%.

                          There was a recent test sample in NYC where 30 pregnant women gave birth. They were all asymptomatic but tested anyways....15 of them were positive for Covid. There are probably millions, maybe tens of millions who have it but show no symptoms. Lets get back to work people, this is all media hype.
                          BallsMahoney
                          Senior Member
                          Member of the Month Oct 2019
                          Last edited by BallsMahoney; 04-16-2020, 12:21 PM.
                          Start: 5/28/2019 BPEL - 6.25, EG - 4.75
                          Current:10/1/2021 BPEL - 7.5, EG - 5.625

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BallsMahoney View Post
                            I wish I could like this post 100 times, but it'll only let me do it once. How are people claiming over 1% when the mortality (cases vs deaths) are fluctuating around .04, .06, .08, etc?

                            Only one correction, you are missing a zero in your decimal math. 10m cases / 30,000 deaths = .003 not .3. Likewise 650,000 infected / 30,000 deaths = point zero four. That is .04. A very very low mortality rate, especially considering the millions who are asymptomatic and never tested, probably that many untested cases will add another zero, meaning .004, .006, .008 or whatever it is depending on the day's fluctuations. Its nowhere NEAR 1%.

                            There was a recent test sample in NYC where 30 pregnant women gave birth. They were all asymptomatic but tested anyways....15 of them were positive for Covid. There are probably millions, maybe tens of millions who have it but show no symptoms. Lets get back to work people, this is all media hype.
                            I think your math is off here, Balls, as was mine at first on the other thread. It's important we get this right so we're all talking about the same reality.

                            To figure out % mortality, you would do (deaths / total cases) * 100 = %deaths. This is basic math. If you think I have the equation wrong, please let me know and we can discuss.

                            So, (33,490 / 654,343) * 100 = 5.2% mortality

                            That's the US.

                            Globally, it's (142,712 / 2,129,427) * 100 = 6.7% mortality

                            Again, if you think I have the equation wrong, please explain how.

                            Now, you are correct to say that the mortality is probably much lower than that, given there are many unreported cases that will never be reflected in the total cases.

                            I have always said, I think the percentage will converge somewhere around 2-3% after all is said and done.

                            Moving forward, I hope we can agree on the math, because otherwise we are talking about two different things. There's no way this is NOWHERE NEAR 1%, as you say. It's actually much larger, but again, I expect the reality to be less given unreported cases and such.

                            If you think I have the equation wrong, please explain to me how, so I can correct my math.
                            START : 2/6/2020
                            BPEL : 5.875" - BaseEG : 5.25" - MSEG : 5.0"
                            CURRENT : 11/18/2021
                            BPEL : 7.5" - BaseEG : 5.75" - MSEG : 5.75"

                            BPEL GOAL : 7.5+" - MSEG GOAL : 5.75+"

                            MadYogi's PE Log

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                            • #15
                              Using actual confirmed cases - 650,000 and confirmed deaths - 32,700, the mortality rate is 5%. It is possible that 3.5 million is a a good number to work with to arrive at .9%; however, it is not comparable to the flu mortality rate because we do not actively test flu candidates. In other words, cohort makeup is derived differently.
                              Valued Member of 12+ years at the PEGym
                              12/'09 (start) NBP EL - 4.5, EG - 4.4
                              12/11 NBPEL - 5.1, MSEG - 5
                              01/13 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.1
                              01/14 NBPEL - 5.35, MSEG - 5.25
                              01/16 NBPEL - 5.4, MSEG - 5.5
                              Fat Pad = 1+/-

                              Real cars have two seats. Everything else is a bus.

                              Comment

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